A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
